Approach
Sometimes the numbers say there's no edge.
ASCEND is built to help you understand a bet. Here's what it won't do, how our record compares with the model's backtest, and how to keep it in proportion.
01
What it won't do
- It tells you when there's no edge.In the walkthrough, a STRONG · OVER score came with a 0% edge against the book, on the same screen. The target map says "No zone edge" when there isn't one.
- It tells you how often a signal has been right.Form, on that prop, has been right 52% of the time across 7,200 past props. That's barely better than a coin flip, and the app shows it.
- It tells you when a sample is too small.Early in the season most numbers carry a warning like "Only 2 games so far." Take it seriously.
- Lines can be old.The books sheet shows when it last updated. Check the sportsbook before you bet.
- It doesn't take bets or hold money.ASCEND isn't a sportsbook, and nobody sells picks inside it.
- It can't stop you losing.Sportsbooks set lines to make money. Research helps you understand a bet, and you can still lose it.
02
Our record, next to the model's backtest
The models · top 3 plays a week
- Balanced (default)
- 45.5%
- NFL v2 · 29–37
- 43.9%
- break-even at −110
- 52.4%
Every model in the app carries a record for its top three plays each week. The default model, Balanced, is at 45.5%. NFL v2, the model on this site's screens, is 29–37, 43.9%. At −110 you need 52.4% just to break even. Both are below it, and the model's own card prints "need 52.4%" beside its record.
Our picks
Being verified. Our tracked record goes here once it's checked against the settled Tracker, next to the models' numbers.
Past results don't predict future results, and none of these numbers says how your bets will go.
03
Keeping it in proportion
- Bet in units.The Tracker counts every pick as one unit. Choose a unit you could lose many times in a row without it mattering, and keep it the same.
- Singles first.The book's margin is built into every leg of a parlay, so it stacks up as you add legs. If you play parlays, stake them smaller than your singles.
- Set limits at the sportsbook.Most books let you cap deposits, losses and time spent. Turn them on before you need them.
- Stop when it stops being fun.If you're chasing losses or betting more than you planned, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.